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Mukhopadhyay, C. K.
- Covered Interest Parity Arbitrage and Long-Run Relation between Spot and Forward Rates in Foreign Exchange (Rupee/Dollar) Market in India-Study of Market Efficiency with Arima (p, d, q) Forecasting
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Authors
Affiliations
1 Department of Economics, KGT Mahavidyalaya, Bagdogra 734014, West Bengal, IN
2 Department of Economics, University of North Bengal, Raja Rammohunpur 734014, West Bengal, IN
1 Department of Economics, KGT Mahavidyalaya, Bagdogra 734014, West Bengal, IN
2 Department of Economics, University of North Bengal, Raja Rammohunpur 734014, West Bengal, IN
Source
Artha Vijnana: Journal of The Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, Vol 59, No 2 (2017), Pagination: 109-138Abstract
The study examines the relation that spot exchange rate maintains with contemporaneous and one – month lagged forward rates in the framework of covered interest parity arbitrage in Indian foreign exchange (rupee/dollar) market from 3rd January, 2011 to 2nd November, 2015. ARIMA (4, 1, 0) stochastic structure of monthly spot rate (St) has been used to generate one – period ahead forecast (Set+1) series. These forecasts are MMSE forecasts and ‘Rational’ by nature. The study shows that one – month lagged forward rate maintains an independent long – run stable relation with spot rate while there exists no co-integrating relation between spot rate and contemporaneous forward rate. One – period lagged forward rate is an optimal forecast of the next period spot rate in the sense that it will be proved wrong only to the extent ofa white noise error term. Risk premium is absent and CIRAP holds in the market such that lagged forward exchange rate on average equals the spot rate in the long – run. There exists no scope for reaping arbitrage profit arising out of the difference between forward rate and corresponding spot rate. This testifies for the ‘efficiency’ of Indian foreign exchange (rupee/dollar) market.References
- Bhatti, Razzaque, H. Moosa, A. Imad (1995), An Alternative Approach to Testing Uncovered Interest Parity, Applied Economics Letters, 2(12): 478-781.
- Browne, F.X. (1983), Departures from Interest Rate Parity: Further Evidence, Journal of Banking and Finance, 7(2): 253-272.
- Clarida, R.H. and M.P. Taylor (1997), The Term Structure of Forward Exchange Premiums and the Forecast Ability of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting the Errors, Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(3): 353-361.
- Cumby, R.E. and M. Obstfeld (1984), International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages Under Flexible Exchange Rate: A Review of Recent Evidence, in J.F.O, Bilson and R.C Marston (Eds.), Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, Chicago, University of Chicago Press.
- Deepika Chandwani1, Manminder Singh Saluja (2014), Exchange Rate Relationship of India with Its Major Trading Partners: A Joint Testing Approach, International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management, 2(6): 243-252.
- Fama, Eugene F. (1984), Journal of Forward and Spot Exchange Rates, 14(3): 319-338.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., Kenneth Fischolar_main (1990), Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market, International Monetary Fund Working Paper, Working Paper No. WP/90/43, pages 26.
- Hakkio, C.S. (1981), Expectations and the Forward Exchange Rate, International Economic Review, 22(3): 663-678.
- Hansen, L.P. and R.J. Hodrick (1980), Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis, Journal of Political Economy, 88(5): 829-853.
- James, R. Lothian, Liuren Wu (2011), Uncovered Interest-rate Parity over the Past Two Centuries, Journal of International Money and Finance, 30(2011): 248-274.
- Jose, Olmo, Pilbeam Keith (2009), Uncovered Interest Parity: Are Empirical Rejections of It Valid?, Journal of Economic Integration, 24(2): 369–384.
- Kenneth Rogoff (1984), On the Effects of Sterilized Intervention: An Analysis of Weekly Data, Journal of Monetary Economics, 14(1984): 133-150.
- Liu, P.C. and G.S. Maddala (1992a), Using Survey Data and Tests for Market Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Market, Empirical Economics, 17(2): 303-314.
- Lothian, James R., Yusif Simaan (1998), International Financial Relations under the Current Float: Evidence from Panel Data, Open Economies Review, 9(4): 293-313.
- Malliaropulos, Dimitrios (1997), A Multivariate GARCH Model of Risk Premia in Foreign Exchange Markets, Economic Modelling, 14(1): 61-79.
- Mc Farland, J.W., P.C. McMahon and Y. Ngama (1994), Forward Exchange Rates and Expectations during the 1920s: A Re-examination of the Evidence, Journal of International Money and Finance, 13(1994): 627-636.
- McCallum, J. Monet (1994), Uncovered Interest Parity and Policy Behavior: New Evidence, Economic Letter, JEL classification codes: F31; E58, 69(1): 81-87.
- Meredith Guy, Chinn D. Minjie (1998), Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity, NBER Working Paper, 1998, Working Paper No. W6797.
- Moosa, A. Imad (1996), An Empirical Investigation into the Causes of Deviations from Covered Interest Parity across the Tasman, New Zealand Economic Papers, 30(1): 39-54.
- Ozcan Karahan, Olcay Colak (2012), Does Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Hold in Turkey?, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2(4): 386-394.
- Poeveridge, S. and C.R Nelson (1981), A New Approach to Decomposition of Economic Time Series into Permanent and Transitory Components with Particular Attention to Measurement of the “Business Cycle”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 7(1981): 152-174.
- Sikdar S., C.K. Mukhopadhyay (2016), Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage Parity (CIRAP) and ‘Efficiency’ of Foreign Exchange (Rupee/Dollar) Market in India – Time Series Econometric Study with Forward Rates and ARIMA Forecasts, International Journal of Business and Management, 4(5): 284-294, May.
- Damage Evaluation in High Temperature Stainless Steel Components Using Non-Destructive Techniques
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Authors
S. Raja Karthihan
1,
T. M. Haridasan
2,
C. Sanjeevi Raja
3,
P. Palanichamy
4,
C. K. Mukhopadhyay
4,
P. Kalyanasundaram
4
Affiliations
1 Department of Physics, Thiagarajar College, Madurai-625009, IN
2 School of Energy, Madurai Kamaraj University, Madurai-625021, IN
3 Department of Physics, Alagappa University, Karaikudi-623001, IN
4 Non Destructive Evaluation Division, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam-603102, IN
1 Department of Physics, Thiagarajar College, Madurai-625009, IN
2 School of Energy, Madurai Kamaraj University, Madurai-625021, IN
3 Department of Physics, Alagappa University, Karaikudi-623001, IN
4 Non Destructive Evaluation Division, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam-603102, IN
Source
Journal of Pure and Applied Ultrasonics, Vol 34, No 1 (2012), Pagination: 3-9Abstract
AISI type 310 stainless steel is currently in demand for the biomass gasifier plants in India as the main structural material. During operation of the plant this steel undergoes temperature as high as 1373 K and variation in temperature and stress. In this work, we have received virgin and service exposed sample cut near the weld failure region of AISI type 304 SS suitably prepared and used for ultrasonic velocity measurements, acoustic emission testing (AET) and photoacoustic (PA) measurements on the virgin and service exposed specimens of AISI type 310 high temperatures steel with the aim to use the outcome of the study to increase the life cycle of the steel and hence the biomass plant. Acoustic emission (AE) test results indicate that as compared to the virgin specimens, strength increases and ductility decreases for the service-exposed specimens. AE generated is also higher for the service-exposed specimens as compared to the virgin specimens. Ultrasonic velocity measurements show comparatively higher velocity in service exposed specimen than in virgin specimen and the hardness measurements show opposite trend to that of ultrasonic measurements. The studies clearly indicate the immense possibility of the applying NDT techniques in assessing the service degradation taking place during the gasifier. In addition, Metallography and Photoacoustics (PA) measurements were also conducted on the specimens. It is found that PA measurements results found to correlate well with the above measurement results.Keywords
Biomass Gasifier, High Temperature Steel, Ultrasonic Nondestructive Testing.- Detection of Hydrogen Assisted Cracking Susceptibility in Modified 9Cr-1Mo Steel Welds by Acoustic Emission Technique
Abstract Views :284 |
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Authors
Gopa Chakraborty
1,
O. Venkata Ramana
2,
T. K. Haneef
1,
S. K. Albert
1,
Babu Rao Jinugu
2,
C. K. Mukhopadhyay
1,
B. P. C. Rao
1
Affiliations
1 Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam, Tamilnadu, IN
2 Department of Metallurgical Engineering, Andhra University, Andhra Pradesh, IN
1 Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam, Tamilnadu, IN
2 Department of Metallurgical Engineering, Andhra University, Andhra Pradesh, IN
Source
Indian Welding Journal, Vol 52, No 3 (2019), Pagination: 41-47Abstract
Assessment of hydrogen assisted cracking susceptibility for high chromium steel weldments is extremely important to avoid damage and sudden failure of components used in fossil power plants and nuclear reactors. Acoustic emission is a novel non-destructive technique that can be successfully employed to detect crack initiation and propagation behavior of the welds during Gap – Bead on Plate test, Y-Groove and Implant test of Modified 9Cr-1Mo steel plates. The diffusible hydrogen content of AWS E9018-B9 electrode under different preheating-post heating conditions is determined by gas chromatography technique. It is observed that the percentage of crack, as determined from G-Bop, Y-Groove tests decreases with increase in preheat, post heat temperature from 100° to 150°C and no cracking is optimized at 200°C preheat- no post heating conditions. Lower critical stress calculated based on implant test data is 328 MPa for the steel welded with 200°C preheat. The diffusible hydrogen content (3.71 ml/100 gm of weld metal) is also lowest for similar welding condition. Acoustic emission time domain analysis of cumulative count shows peak shifting of waves, which confirms the crack initiation and propagation behavior.Keywords
Hydrogen Assisted Cracking, Modified 9Cr-1Mo Steel, Acoustic Emission Technique, Gap – Bead on Plate Test, Y-Groove Test, Implant Test.References
- Dickinsons DW and Ries GD (1979); Implant testing of medium to high strength steel - a model for predicting delayed cracking susceptibility, Welding Research Supplement, pp. 205s-211s.
- Padhy GK and Komizo Yu-ichi (2013); Diffusible hydrogen in steel weldments - a status review, Transactions of JWRI, pp.39-62.
- Wadley HNG, Scruby CB and Speake H (2013); Acoustic emission for physical examination of metals, International Metals Reviews, pp41-64.
- Mazal P, Vlasic F and Koula V (2015); Use of acoustic emission method for identification of fatigue micro-cracks creation, Procedia Engineering, pp.379-388.
- Albert SK, Ramasubbu V, Sunder Raj SI and Bhaduri AK (2011); Hydrogen assisted cracking susceptibility of modified 9Cr-1Mo steel and its weld metal, Welding in the world, pp.7-8.